Home Sales Hit Their Lowest Level Since 2010: Why Buyers Have More Negotiating Power This Winter

U.S. home sales just fell to their slowest pace in more than 16 years. Existing-home sales dropped 5.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million, the lowest level since August 2010, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Nov. 12, 2026. The main cause is mortgage rates above 7%. Prices haven’t crashed, but there are more homes for sale, they’re taking longer to sell and more sellers are cutting prices. If you’re shopping this winter, you probably have more room to negotiate than at any point in the last few years. If you’re selling, pricing right matters more than it has in a long time.

What the October home sales report found

NAR’s monthly report counts closed sales of previously owned single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops, which make up more than 90% of U.S. home sales. Here are the key October numbers:

• Sales: 3.75 million (annual rate), down 5.5% from September and 8.8% from October 2025.
• Inventory: 1.59 million homes for sale, up 4.6% from a year earlier. That’s a 5.1-month supply, up from 4.4 months a year ago.
• Median price: $416,700, up just 0.4% from a year earlier.
• Time on market: a median of 35 days, up from 33 days in September.
• First-time buyers: 29% of sales, down from 32% a year earlier. Historically they’ve made up about 40%.
• Cash sales: 29% of transactions. Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) stayed at just 2%.

Sales fell from a year earlier in every region. The West was hit hardest, with sales down 14.5% from a year ago and a median price of $624,300. The Northeast held up best (down 4.1%), and it is also where prices rose the most, up 3.2% to a median of $519,600. In the South, the median price slipped 0.4% to $360,900, according to NAR.

Why home sales fell so far

Most of the blame goes to mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.33% in October, up from 6.25% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac data cited by NAR. NAR says that jump alone adds about $216 a month to the payment on a $300,000 mortgage. “Home buying is difficult when mortgage rates have climbed to their highest levels since 2000, aside from a single month in 2023,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said.

Rates climbed fast this fall. They passed 7% on Sept. 24 and reached a three-year high of 7.40% on Oct. 8, Inman reported. That came after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September. Rates have eased a little since then. Freddie Mac’s weekly average fell for a fourth straight week to 7.11% on Nov. 12, the AP reported. But daily rates jumped again after a hotter-than-expected inflation report, and markets are bracing for another possible Fed hike in December. For the full rate picture, see our look at where mortgage rates are headed after the midterms.

Sellers are holding back too. Many owners locked in much lower rates years ago and don’t want to give them up, so a lot of them are borrowing against their home equity instead of moving. That’s a big reason prices haven’t fallen much even though fewer homes are selling.

Are home prices falling?

It depends on which number you look at. NAR’s October median was still up 0.4% from a year earlier, which NAR says is the 40th straight month of year-over-year gains. But Redfin’s data for the four weeks ending Nov. 8 showed the median sale price down 0.9% from a year earlier, the fourth straight week of declines. We covered that shift in more detail in U.S. home prices are falling for the first time in 3 years.

Either way, prices are basically flat nationally, not crashing. Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant told Inman that because buyers and sellers are both pulling back, she doesn’t expect prices to drop significantly even if rates rise.

Why buyers have more negotiating power this winter

Several signs point to a market that’s tilting toward buyers:

• More choice. A 5.1-month supply is close to what’s usually considered a balanced market, and Yun said inventory is back to pre-COVID levels. Redfin estimates there are about half a million more sellers than buyers in the U.S., and condo sellers outnumber buyers more than 2 to 1.
• More price cuts. About 20.5% of active listings had a price reduction in October, the highest share for that month since 2022, according to Realtor.com data cited by NAR.
• Homes are sitting longer. Yun said that when a home has been on the market for more than 60 days, it typically takes about a 9% discount to sell, according to Inman.
• Less competition. Redfin says pending sales are at the lowest level in its records going back to 2021, and only 22.7% of homes sold above list price.

Winter is also usually the slowest season for home sales. With fewer buyers out looking, sellers who list in December and January may be more willing to deal.

How to use the slow market if you’re buying

1. Get preapproved and compare lenders. With rates swinging day to day, quotes from two or three lenders can differ a lot. Ask how long a rate lock lasts and what it costs to extend.
2. Look for listings that have been sitting. Check days on market and price history on listing sites. A home that’s been listed for 60+ days or has already had a price cut is where you have the most room to negotiate.
3. Ask for concessions, not just a lower price. Seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown can lower your monthly payment more than a small price cut. Your lender can show you the math for each option.
4. Keep your inspection contingency. In a slower market, you rarely need to waive inspections to win a house. Use the inspection report to negotiate repairs or credits.
5. Budget for the full cost of owning. Taxes, insurance and maintenance can add a lot to the monthly payment. Our tips for first-time homebuyers cover what to plan for.

What sellers should do now

If you can wait, you may not need to sell this winter. NAR says the country’s 88 million homeowners are mostly in a strong financial position because of years of price gains. If you have to sell because of a job or family change, here’s what to focus on:

• Price it right from day one. Overpriced homes sit, and the longer they sit, the bigger the eventual discount tends to be.
• Fix the obvious problems first. Buyers have options, so a leaky faucet, peeling paint or an old furnace can push them toward the next listing.
• Be open to concessions. Offering to cover some closing costs or a rate buydown can attract buyers who are struggling with today’s payments.

Will home sales pick up?

Economists are split on how fast. Yun said there could be “sizable pent-up demand if mortgage rates decline,” especially if rates fall below 7%. Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale told Inman she expects more buyers to return as rates move off their highs, but said the upside will be limited. Sturtevant is more cautious. She said rates are more likely to rise than fall before year-end and that 2026 could end with fewer than 4 million existing-home sales, which would be the first time that’s happened since the 1990s.

The next big data points are the Fed’s December meeting and NAR’s November sales report, which is due in December.

FAQ

Why are home sales so low right now?

Mainly because mortgage rates are above 7%, up from about 6.25% a year ago, which makes monthly payments much more expensive. Many owners also don’t want to give up the low rates they already have, so fewer homes change hands.

Is this a buyer’s market?

It’s moving that way in many places. Inventory is at a 5.1-month supply, about one in five listings had a price cut in October, and Realtor.com says about two-thirds of the 100 largest metros favor buyers or are trending that way. Local conditions vary a lot, so check your own market.

Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?

No one can reliably time the market. Most economists quoted after the report don’t expect big national price drops. If you find a home you can comfortably afford and plan to stay a while, a slow market can help you negotiate. This article is general information, not financial advice.

Sources: NAR Existing-Home Sales report (Nov. 12, 2026), NAR Real Estate News (Nov. 12, 2026), Inman (Nov. 12, 2026), Redfin (Nov. 12, 2026) and AP (Nov. 12, 2026).