Mortgage Rates Fall to 7.18% After the Midterms: Will They Keep Dropping, and Should You Buy or Refinance?

Mortgage rates have dropped for three weeks in a row. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% as of Nov. 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before and from a peak of about 7.4% in mid-October. That’s real relief, but rates are still about a full point higher than a year ago, and most experts don’t expect a big drop soon. Here’s what changed, what it means for your monthly payment, and how to think about buying, waiting or refinancing right now.

Where mortgage rates stand right now

According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.18% for the week ending Nov. 5, while the 15-year fixed averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60%. A year earlier, those rates were 6.22% and 5.50%. Freddie Mac publishes the survey every Thursday at noon Eastern, so the next reading lands on Nov. 12.

Daily lender rate sheets tell a similar story. A Nadlan Group Research review had the average 30-year fixed at 7.18% heading into Nov. 10, the second-lowest reading since mid-September, with FHA loans at 6.82% and VA loans at 6.83%.

Why rates fell after the midterms

Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more than anything the Federal Reserve announces directly. As Marketplace reported on Nov. 9, rates sat between about 6% and 6.5% for much of 2025 and early 2026, then climbed over the summer as the war in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and inflation, and the Fed began raising rates. Since the midterm elections, investors have been betting that the conflict with Iran will wind down, oil prices will ease, and the Fed will make one more hike and then pause. That shift pulled long-term yields, and mortgage rates, down by more than 20 basis points from the October high.

Why most experts don’t expect a big drop yet

The forecasts are cautious. In the same Marketplace report, Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance predicted rates will bounce between roughly 7% and 7.25% over the next month or two, and Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said she didn’t think buyers or sellers should wait for rates to come down. Morningstar notes that markets expect a quarter-point Fed hike in December, citing the CME FedWatch tool, and that Goldman Sachs strategists see the 30-year rate falling to about 6.4% only by the end of 2027.

The next short-term test is the October consumer price index, scheduled for release on Nov. 10. A cooler-than-expected inflation reading could help rates keep drifting lower; a hot one could push lenders to reprice higher within hours.

What 7.18% means for your monthly payment

Small moves in the rate add up over 30 years. Here’s an illustration we calculated for a $320,000 loan (principal and interest only, before taxes, insurance and any HOA dues):

• At 7.40% (mid-October peak): about $2,216 a month
• At 7.18% (current average): about $2,168 a month
• At 7.00%: about $2,129 a month
• At 6.22% (a year ago): about $1,964 a month

So the recent dip saves roughly $48 a month on that loan compared with October, while the gap to last year’s rates is still about $200 a month. Your own rate will depend on your credit score, down payment, loan type and the points you pay, so use these figures only as a rough guide and compare official Loan Estimates from at least two or three lenders.

Should you buy now or wait?

There’s no single right answer, and nobody can reliably time rates. As Wharton real estate professor Susan Wachter told Marketplace, forecasting the 10-year yield, and therefore mortgage rates, is close to impossible. A few things are worth weighing:

• Prices are softening, not crashing. Fairweather said home prices are rising more slowly than inflation, which gives wages a chance to catch up. We covered the latest data in our look at why U.S. home prices are falling for the first time in three years.
• Supply is still tight. The National Association of Home Builders told Marketplace that builder sentiment is at its lowest level since June 2012, held back by rates, energy and materials costs, and labor shortages. Fewer new homes means less choice for buyers.
• Affordability is the real limit. NAR economist Nadia Evangelou told Morningstar that when rates averaged 6.3%, about 10.4 million renter households could afford a starter home; at 7.3%, that fell to 8.7 million.

If you’ve found a home you love and the payment fits your budget at today’s rate, waiting for a lower rate is a gamble. If the numbers only work at 6%, it may make more sense to keep saving and stay ready. Our tips for first-time homebuyers walk through the basics of getting pre-approved and budgeting for closing costs.

What about adjustable-rate mortgages?

More buyers are trying ARMs to lower their starting payment. Mortgage Bankers Association data cited by Morningstar shows ARMs made up 11.4% of applications in the week ending Nov. 4, up from 7.9% three months earlier. An ARM can make sense if you expect to sell or refinance within a few years, but if rates don’t fall, your payment can rise when the fixed period ends. Read the adjustment caps carefully before you sign.

Is it worth refinancing at 7.18%?

For most current homeowners, probably not. A Realtor.com figure cited in a new Splitero homeowner survey found 78% of outstanding mortgages had rates below 6% in early 2026. Refinancing only pays off if your new rate is meaningfully lower than your current one and you stay in the home long enough to recover closing costs. People who bought or refinanced near the October peak are the main group who might benefit if rates keep sliding.

The “lock-in effect” is changing how people use their homes

High rates are keeping many owners in place. In Splitero’s survey of 2,713 homeowners, conducted Sept. 16 to 23, 37% said they’re staying put to avoid a higher mortgage rate, rising to 46% of those with a mortgage. Staying has costs too: 32% of rate-locked owners said they had delayed necessary maintenance in the past year, and only 39% of all respondents said they could cover an urgent $5,000 repair with cash.

If you’re staying put, it pays to plan for upkeep instead of reacting to emergencies:

1. Budget for maintenance. Set aside money each month for repairs, so a broken furnace or roof leak doesn’t end up on a credit card.
2. Handle small problems early. Fixing a slow leak or a failing seal now is usually far cheaper than repairing water damage later.
3. Compare equity options carefully. Home equity loans, HELOCs and cash-out refinances all come with repayment obligations, and a cash-out refi would replace your low rate. Our guide to how a home equity loan works explains the basics, but compare total costs and terms before you borrow.

FAQ

What is the average 30-year mortgage rate today?

Freddie Mac’s latest weekly average is 7.18% for the 30-year fixed and 6.57% for the 15-year fixed, as of Nov. 5, 2026. Your actual offer will vary by lender, credit and down payment.

Will mortgage rates go down in December 2026?

Nobody knows for sure. Experts quoted by Marketplace expect rates to hover between about 7% and 7.25% in the near term, and markets are pricing in another Fed hike in December, which makes a sharp drop unlikely.

When does Freddie Mac update mortgage rates?

Every Thursday at 12 p.m. Eastern. The survey averages applications from the previous Thursday through Wednesday.

Is now a good time to buy a house?

It depends on your budget and plans more than on the rate forecast. If the monthly payment works for you at today’s rate and you plan to stay several years, waiting for lower rates carries its own risk. This article is general information, not financial advice; talk to a lender or housing counselor about your situation.

Featured image: “Prieur Street, Broadmoor, New Orleans – New house for sale, Sept 2023” by Infrogmation of New Orleans, via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped.